Bunker fuel prices have fallen to their lowest levels in 20 months, with the global average now at $523.5/mt as of February 2025. This is the lowest price point since June 2023, when bunker fuel was priced at $503.25/mt. Compared to the same time last year, prices have declined by 3% from $539.75/mt, with a month-on-month drop of 2.3% from January’s $535.8/mt.
Looking at regional trends, the Americas continue to see the highest bunker fuel prices at $559.75/mt in February 2025, though this marks a 19-month low for the region. The Americas also experienced a 5.5% decline from January. Meanwhile, the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region recorded a minor increase of 0.4%, bringing prices up to $520/mt, while the Europe, Middle East, and Africa (EMEA) region saw a slight 0.1% dip, reaching $500.5/mt. Over the past year, the Americas experienced a 5.3% decline from $591.25/mt, EMEA prices dropped 5.7% from $530.5/mt, whereas APAC was the exception, rising by 4.5%.
A major driver behind this downward trend is the shifting outlook from OPEC regarding global oil demand. In its latest projections, OPEC maintained its 2025 oil demand growth forecast at 1.45 million barrels per day (bpd) and its 2026 estimate at 1.43 million bpd. The International Energy Agency (IEA) offers a slightly lower projection, expecting a 1.05 million bpd increase in 2025. Notably, OPEC has been revising its oil demand forecasts downward in recent months, contributing to the easing of bunker fuel prices.
Political developments have also played a significant role in shaping market expectations. Recent talks between former U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin regarding negotiations over the Ukraine conflict have added uncertainty. Moreover, Trump has urged OPEC to ease its production cuts in an effort to lower oil prices and potentially accelerate conflict resolution. However, these calls have been met with resistance from both OPEC.
At the same time, global trade policy uncertainties remain a key factor. While economic growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 remain optimistic, particularly for major economies like the U.S, China, India, Brazil, and Russia there is still apprehension surrounding potential trade disputes and tariff changes. Although recent U.S centred trade negotiations have introduced some volatility, OPEC has suggested that these factors are unlikely to significantly alter its overall growth assumptions.
As bunker fuel prices continue their downward trajectory, shippers stand to benefit from reduced costs. However, with economic and geopolitical uncertainties still in play, the future direction of prices remains uncertain.
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