Could cargo crimes change pricing structure for consumers in 2025?

Aerial top down view of a large container cargo ship with copy space

According to news reports, Cincinnati-based Total Quality Logistics (TQL) has highlighted a troubling trend in the supply chain. The logistics provider reports that cargo crimes are on the rise, with tractor-trailers as primary targets and stolen goods ranging from baby formula to bourbon.

Cargo thefts in the US and Canada surged 27% in 2024, according to the latest quarterly analysis by freight security firm Verisk CargoNet.

The report identified 3,625 theft incidents over the past year, with the average loss per theft rising to $202,364, up from $187,895 in 2023. Each quarter of 2024 surpassed the record-setting theft levels of 2023, though the rate of increase slowed as the year progressed. The most significant spike occurred in Q1 2024, with 317 more incidents than the same period in 2023, while Q4 saw a more moderate rise of 94 incidents (an 11.8% year-over-year increase).

As in previous years, California and Texas experienced the largest increases, with thefts rising 33% and 39%, respectively. Among the hardest-hit counties, Dallas County, Texas, led with a 78% spike, followed by Los Angeles County (50%) and San Bernardino County (47%).

A Shift in Targeted Goods

CargoNet also observed shifts in targeted goods. While 2023 saw frequent theft of engine oils, solar products, and energy drinks, 2024 marked a strategic shift toward high-value commodities such as raw and finished copper, consumer electronics (including high-end servers and audio equipment), and cryptocurrency mining hardware. Criminals also increasingly targeted consumables such as avocados, nuts, cosmetics, vitamins, and protein powder.

A Growing Threat and Market Response

TQL warns that cargo theft is a daily occurrence, with criminals employing increasingly sophisticated tactics. What was once a crime of opportunity has evolved into highly coordinated operations, generating hundreds of millions of dollars for criminal networks. One common scheme involves criminals impersonating legitimate trucking companies to infiltrate freight broker systems. Once successful, they reroute cargo, making recovery nearly impossible.

For example, in October 2024, criminals stole three truckloads of holiday merchandise worth over $1m from Flycatcher, a high-tech toy company and in November, distiller Santo Tequila fell victim to a double-brokering scam, resulting in the loss of $1m worth of tequila bottles.

During Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc’s Q3 2024 earnings call, CEO Adam Miller addressed the rising cargo theft crisis in the road freight market. He highlighted a surge in deceptive practices, particularly where criminals exploit power-only arrangements to steal entire loads.

Miller emphasized Knight-Swift’s robust security measures, noting that despite hauling approximately 4m loads annually, the company experiences very few trailer thefts. Meanwhile, Schneider National Inc has been actively addressing cargo theft in Mexico, where the company operates extensively.

TQL asserts that such incidents have severe financial consequences, potentially leading to pricing adjustments for consumers.

To counter the growing threat, TQL has significantly expanded its cargo security and compliance team, quadrupling its size since 2020. The team’s primary role is to vet carriers within its network, ensuring that bad actors are excluded. Additionally, TQL works closely with the FBI to report and track suspicious activity within the supply chain.

Despite these efforts, TQL expects cargo theft to continue rising in 2025, with another notable percentage increase anticipated. This underscores the urgent need for ongoing vigilance and enhanced security measures across the road freight market.

Author: Shruti Sasidharan

Source: Ti Insight 


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