Ti’s latest market projections for 2024 reveal a stagnating European road freight market, with 0.0% real growth and a marginal 0.1% nominal increase. After two strong years following the Covid pandemic, 2024 was a year of standing still.
The flat performance is largely the result of a weak macroeconomic environment. Several factors combined to suppress both demand and operational capacity across the sector:
• High inflation and elevated interest rates continued to reduce household and business spending.
• Industrial demand remained soft, especially in key sectors such as manufacturing and construction.
• Operational pressures that include the ongoing driver shortages and rising costs related to decarbonisation and regulation further limited growth potential.
Total European Road Freight Market Real Growth
Source: Ti
According to Ti, the domestic road freight market declined by 0.1% in real terms, reflecting continued weakness in internal European trade. In contrast, the international segment managed a slight recovery of 0.3%, following a sharp 5.6% contraction in 2023. Although modest, this uptick signals early signs of stabilisation in cross-border transport demand.
From a structural perspective, cost inflation remained a dominant theme. Fuel prices, labour costs, insurance premiums, and investment in cleaner technologies all put pressure on operators’ margins. As a result, 2024 became a year focused more on cost control and survival than growth or transformation.
Real Growth Rates: Major markets 2024
Source: Ti
2025 Outlook
Looking ahead to 2025, the market shows tentative signs of improvement.
The European Commission’s Spring 2025 Economic Forecast projects GDP growth of 1.1% across the EU, driven by resilient labour markets, rising wages, and slightly improved consumer confidence. These trends are expected to support a gradual increase in domestic and international freight volumes.
In line with this, Ti forecasts that the European road freight market will grow by 1.1% in real terms in 2025. While not a strong rebound, this return to growth suggests that the market may be moving past the worst of the economic drag experienced over the past 18 months.
Several sub-sectors will likely play a role in driving this recovery:
• The automotive sector, after a notable downturn in 2024, is expected to enter a slow recovery phase. Given the high freight intensity of car manufacturing, this should contribute positively to volumes.
• E-commerce remains a long-term growth engine. Continued growth in online shopping is likely to support demand for both local and cross-border transport services.
However, the underlying risks remain significant. Labour shortages show no sign of easing, and regulatory and sustainability requirements are increasing year by year. These pressures are pushing more operators to invest in fleet upgrades, digital tools, and network optimisation, despite the uncertain returns in the short term.
Author: Shruti Sasidharan
Source: Ti Insight
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