Global automotive logistics market size was €81,383.4m in 2023 and is forecast to be €83,181.2m in 2024, growing at a 5-year CAGR of 1.7% between 2024 and 2029. The region with the highest growth in 2023 was North America at 11.7% and the region with the highest 5-year CAGR is Sub-Saharan Africa at 4.1%.
Inbound
Global automotive inbound growth was 12.3% in 2023 and is forecast to be 3.1% in 2024, with a 5-year CAGR of 0.8%.
The region with the highest growth rate in 2023 was Europe, at 17.3%. This is forecast to be 10.8% in 2024 with a 5-year CAGR of 1.2%. Germany has the largest market size, at €2066.6m in 2023 and it is forecast to grow to €2285.9m in 2024, with a 5-year CAGR of 0%. Europe remains a hub for automotive manufacturing, with leading automakers such as Volkswagen, BMW, and Daimler and growing consumer demand for EVs. Slovenia is forecast to have the highest inbound growth rate of 23.6% in 2024. Slovenia is strategically located at the crossroads of key European transportation corridors and close to major automotive manufacturing regions in Austria, Germany, Italy, and Hungary. It also has a robust automotive sector. The country with the lowest growth in Europe is Russia at a forecast -1.7% in 2024. This is mainly due to Western sanctions imposed in response to Russia’s actions in Ukraine.
In North America, 2024 actual market size is forecast to be €9826.3m. The largest market in the region is the USA with 2024 growth forecast to be 3.9% and a total market size of €6160.4m, compared to 12.5% in 2023, with a total market size of €5931m. The region with the highest growth in 2023 was South America at 16.3% in 2023 and a 5-year CAGR of 6.2%. The US has one of the largest manufacturers of electric vehicles, with large production facilities located in the US including a proprietary battery production capability.
Total market size in Asia Pacific was €300,009.7m in 2023 with a forecast market size of €31,361.4m in 2024 and a 5-year CAGR of 2.7%.Growth is highest in China, at 12% in 2023, a forecast 1.6% in 2024 and a 5-year CAGR of 1.5%. Forecast market size in 2024 is €17,024.1m. China has become one of the most important economies in global automotive production and consumption. Production in China is now in excess of 30m vehicles.
It’s notable that the Sub-Saharan African inbound market has the highest 5-year CAGR of 3%. This is due to the rising middle class and urbanization, driving demand for vehicles, population growth and infrastructure development as well as localised automotive assembly and manufacturing.
Outbound
Global outbound market size grew by 9.8% in 2023, but is forecast to shrink by 1.7% in 2024, with a 5-year CAGR of 2.3%.
The country with the largest market size is Germany, at €785.8m in 2023 and a forecast market size of €749.3m in 2024, with a 5-year CAGR of 1.6%. However there is a negative growth rate across most of Europe, with Poland standing out at -8.1%. Automotive sales growth in Europe has slowed due to economic pressures and the shift to EVs. In Poland, infrastructure and consumer demand for EVs are still developing. A significant portion of used cars in Poland come from fleet contracts – fewer fleet vehicles are entering the used-car market, impacting exports. Variations in the zloty and euro exchange rates have also influenced trade dynamics.
South America is the region with the highest 5-year CAGR of 6.4%, with Sub-Saharan Africa following behind at 3.5%. South America is becoming a production hub for several global automotive manufacturers, thanks to lower labour costs and regional trade agreements. Automotive manufacturers in South America, particularly in Brazil, are increasingly targeting export markets to compensate for fluctuations in domestic demand.
In Asia Pacific, South Korea had the highest inbound growth in 2023, at 13%, but the 5-year CAGR is -2%, compared with 2.5% for China. Japan, like Germany, is an economy characterised by the production operations of large internal vehicle manufacturers. Most of these have struggled with marketing electric vehicles.
Spare Parts
The global spare parts market grew by 5.5% in 2023, with a market size of €15,626m and a 5-year CAGR of €19080.3m.
The region with the largest market size is North America, at €5457.8m in 2023 and a 2024 forecast of €5666.2m. It’s notable that the 5-year CAGR for Mexico is higher than any other country in the world, at 11.5%. Mexico is one of the largest automobile manufacturers globally, and the country serves as a hub for many global car manufacturers. With increased vehicle production, there is a growing demand for spare parts to support both production lines and after-sales service. The ageing vehicle fleet and a booming after-market sector also contribute to the growth, as well as strong trade agreements and proximity to the US.
The region with the highest growth in 2023 was South America at 16.3% in 2023 and a 5-year CAGR of 6.2%. Brazil and Argentina have well-established automotive production and manufacturing industries and trade pacts such as Mercosur have made it easier to import and export automotive parts within the region.
In Europe, the countries with the highest growth in 2023 were Hungary and Turkey, at 24.4% and 15.6% respectively. Russia has the highest 5-year CAGR at 4.6%. The highest actual market size in 2023 was Germany at €729.4m.
Asia Pacific ranks 3rd in terms of total market size in 2023, at €4072.7m, with China forecast to have the highest market size in 2029 of €1893.5m.
Sub-Saharan Africa is the region with the highest 5-year CAGR of 6.4%. Economic growth and policies encouraging automotive trade and investments, coupled with Africa’s participation in trade agreements such as the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), facilitating the flow of spare parts across borders, are driving this growth. In addition, Sub-Saharan Africa imports a significant number of second-hand vehicles, which often require more frequent maintenance and spare part replacements than new vehicles.
Author: Julia Swales
Source: Ti Insight
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