In the latest Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB) World Trade Monitor, the imports index appears to uncover some small signs of growth for international goods emanating from across the world’s most advanced economies.
It’s clear that import activity across the world is still down year-on-year. In the first 4 months of 2024, global import volumes are down 0.5% year-on-year. However, the US is up 1.9%, and advanced Asia-Pacific countries excluding Japan (APACej) were up 4.8%.
In contrast, imports into the Euro Area and the UK remained below 2023 January – April levels by -5.1% and -3.2%, respectively. This is rather unsurprising, considering the effect of inflation and monetary policy on the pockets of European consumers.
However, if we look at more recent numbers, the signs of growth seem slightly more widespread. In April 2024, UK imports were up 5.0% vs 2023, the US up 2.6%, and APACej up 8.6%. The Euro Area (-3.8%) and Japan (-2.7%) remained down year-on-year.
Once we move our attention to recent trends in import growth rather than total volume, the picture begins to look brighter. Average month-on-month import volume growth in 2024 is nearly positive across the board with the US (+0.5%), the UK (+2.3%), APACej (+1.5%), and even the Euro Area (+0.4%). This is in stark contrast to the first 4 months of 2023, where only the US saw import growth.
Our takeaway from this is that, on a surface level, the total demand for international goods from the world’s largest and most developed markets remains weak and below historic levels. The US and China have maintained a respectable level of import demand growth, but Europe and Japan have struggled significantly. However, when we focus on the most recent trends, it is undeniable that there are some positive movements in import volume growth that suggest an improving picture for global trade in 2024 and into 2025.
Effect on Global Logistics Markets?
Growing demand will likely begin to put more price pressure on the forwarding spot market, causing rate rises. However, this also suggests that further analysis into which industries are driving the growth in demand can uncover some rare growth opportunities in global trade in the second half of 2024.
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Source: Ti Insight
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