Post-Covid global express market set to surpass €500bn by 2024, growing at a CAGR of 7.5% from 2020-2024

Post-Covid express market, Delivery man wearing mask holding package

The global express & small parcels market will reach a total value of €501.2bn in 2024, according to new Ti forecast for the post-Covid market.

  • Global express & small parcels market to expand by a 2020-2024 CAGR of 7.5%
  • Global express market bucks the trend of economic turmoil brought on by the pandemic
  • The domestic express market is expected to grow fastest, by a CAGR of 7.7% from 2020 to 2024
  • The international express market is expected to grow at a 2020-2024 CAGR of 6.8%
  • Asia Pacific domestic express to sustain high CAGR of 11.1% 2020-2024
  • Europe’s Express market is set to grow faster than pre-Covid expectations to 2024, which a 2020-2024 CAGR of 5.4%
  • North America’s express market is set for a post-Covid 2020-2024 CAGR of 5.4%, slightly down on pre-covid expectations

Post-Covid express market size and growth


















Ti’s new global express & small parcels market data highlights a number of upward trends at country, regional and global levels as the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic pushed shoppers online and shippers towards air express capacity to keep goods moving. In many locations, 2020 has been a bumper year for express market growth. The upswing in growth will set the market on course to top half-a-trillion Euros for the first ever time in 2024.

Andy Ralls, a Quantitative Analyst at Ti said: “The pandemic has accelerated the growth trend of both the domestic and international express markets. Post-lockdown, online retail has continued to perform extremely well, indicating that medium term prospects for B2C shipments are likely to be very strong. Time-definite shipments moved by the integrators soared through Q3, due to a lack of global air freight capacity, a sharp rebound in economic activity and strong demand for cross-border e-commerce products. A recovery in trade volumes should provide further growth for the international sector in the years ahead.”

As the world slowly emerged from initial COVID-19 lockdowns many markets and sectors have suffered immensely from its consequences, however, globally the express and small parcels market has bucked that trend to record its second highest growth rate since 2010. The express sector has been at the forefront of keeping the global economy moving and enabling households to follow lockdown rules by eliminating the need to leave their house for shopping.

Globally, the domestic market will expand by 9.7% in 2020 as lockdown measures pushed shoppers to online channels for a range of goods, particularly as non-essential retail was curtailed in many consumer markets. The rapid acceleration of online retail in many markets has seen e-commerce penetration rates expand quickly, pulling forward future adoption.

The rapid growth in cross-border e-commerce highlighted in the Q3 results of the integrators, especially in the Asia Pacific region, has been a driving force for international growth with the expansion going beyond compared to the strong domestic e-commerce growth rates. Lockdown measures followed by peak season spurred a boost in cross-border e-commerce. DHL reported a nearly 40% Y-o-Y revenue growth in its international B2C e-commerce segment. Retail and fashion are the leading verticals, as they recorded a 44% and 27% Y-o-Y revenue growth respectively for the first eight months of 2020. The expectation is for these cross-border spending habits to remain embedded after the pandemic and for them to sustain faster international express growth in the post-Covid market, alongside the return of other international express flows as manufacturing returns to normality.

Source: Transport Intelligence, November 26, 2020.

Author: Transport Intelligence

Ti’s full market forecasts for the express & parcels market with all breakdowns by segment, region and country are available on the Global Supply Chain intelligence (GSCi) database.

Access all the forecasts data on GSCi:

Read Ti’s overview of the figures in the whitepaper:




Ti Whitepaper: Post Covid-19 forecasts: Express and Small Parcels growth 2020-2024

Download Ti’s latest whitepaper for a full breakdown of 2020-2024 express market growth forecasts, split by region and domestic & international.