Proforma scheduled liner capacity on the Asia-North Europe trade is set to be reduced by around 11%, once the transition to the new shipping alliance set-up is complete.
In contrast, the number of individual weekly sailings between Asia and North Europe is expected to increase, from the 26 offered by the previous alliances and standalone services, to 28, according to new analysis from eeSea.
Under the networks being phased out: the Ocean Alliance ran six Asia-North Europe services a week, offering a combined capacity of 94,000 teu; the 2M partners offered five, for 70,000 teu; THE Alliance ran four a week, offering 52,000 teu; and there were six non-alliance independent services offering 33,000 teu. This meant the total weekly capacity on the trade on offer to shippers and their 3PLs was 249,000 teu.
With the end of the 2M and THE Alliance vessel-sharing agreements (VSAs) and the launch of the Gemini Cooperation and Premier Alliance (whose members also have an extensive VSA with newly independent MSC on Asia-North Europe), the picture changes significantly.
Henceforth, while the Ocean Alliance’s offering remains unchanged, Gemini will offer four services, for a combined weekly capacity of 40,000 teu; the Premier Alliance in cooperation with MSC will run five services offering 59,000 teu; and independent services will remain at six a week, but their combined capacity will decline to 28,000 teu, meaning a combined weekly capacity drop of some 28,000 teu a week on the trade to 221,000 teu across all services.
“Despite two fewer weekly sailings into Northern Europe, Gemini Cooperation will provide fairly equal representation on both subtrades, in terms of proforma capacity,” wrote eeSea head of forecasting and operations Destine Ozuygur.
“The Premier Alliance, on the other hand, will have a bit more impact in Northern Europe, with 59,000 teu vs 51,000 teu average weekly teu deliverable,” she adds.
It is a different picture on the Asia-Mediterranean trade, where the number of weekly sailings will remain the same, at 23, while overall capacity will increase by just under 5%.
The Ocean Alliance’s offering will continue at fiver a week, with total capacity edging up from 49,000 teu to 50,000 teu; while Gemini will run six services with a total capacity of 38,000 teu a week; and the Premier Alliance will run four, offering 51,000 teu. The eight current independent services will continue, but their overall capacity will increase, from 33,000 teu to 40,000 teu a week.
Under the previous alliance system, the 2M offered five services for 49,000 teu, and THE Alliance ran five services for 39,000 teu a week.
These networks have, of course, been designed to account for the Red Sea crisis and the need to route vessels around the Cape of Good Hope, rather than transiting the Suez Canal, and Ms Ozuygur warns that should Suez transits resume, the picture is likely to change considerably.
“Although there will be little change in the total number of planned sailings, the Far East-Mediterranean subtrade will see an increase in both alliance and non-alliance weekly capacity, at 1% and 18% increase respectively. Northern European ports, on the other hand, will see a decrease of 11% on alliance offerings and 15% in non-alliance service capacity.
“It will be interesting to see how this shift settles, given the possibility of regular sailings through the Suez Canal in the third or fourth quarter of 2025.
“With the positive uptick in schedule reliability noted on the Mediterranean trade in our Q4 24 Schedule Reliability Scorecard publication, a return to more predictable and shorter routings, as well as a shift in first ports of discharge, could spell a significant comeback for the region,” she notes.
Source: By Gavin van Marle, The Loadstar
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