European Road Freight Transport 2024

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Growth outlook for European road freight remains subdued, however macroeconomic forecasts are changing positively. New Ti data projects the market will return to growth in 2024, growing by 1.6%. What’s the growth outlook for domestic and international markets and out to 2028?

Ti’s European Road Freight Transport 2024 report provides in depth data and comparative analysis.

The full report analyses the competitive landscape in the market and offers in-depth market projections and trade forecasts: an essential tool for business leaders making critical decisions.

The report contains:

  • Market sizing, growth rates and forecasts for 2023 and 2024 - 2028​​​​​​​, ​​​​​​​split by country, domestic & international.
  • Analysis of the key factors influencing demand, growth, opportunities, and challenges within the European Road Freight market.
  • In-depth analysis and cost of ownership comparison of hydrogen, battery electric and diesel trucks.
  • European Road Freight Transport Provider Profiles.
  • Comparison of M&A activity within the market, including activity across sectors and regions.
  • Competitive landscape analysis.
  • Analysis of Ti's State of Logistics European Road Freight Survey 2024.
  • Profiles of the top 10 most promising road freight start-ups in the European market.

The report contains:

  • Market sizing, growth rates and forecasts for 2023 and 2024 - 2028​​​​​​​, ​​​​​​​split by country, domestic & international.
  • Analysis of the key factors influencing demand, growth, opportunities, and challenges within the European Road Freight market.
  • In-depth analysis and cost of ownership comparison of hydrogen, battery electric and diesel trucks.
  • European Road Freight Transport Provider Profiles.
  • Comparison of M&A activity within the market, including activity across sectors and regions.
  • Competitive landscape analysis.
  • Analysis of Ti's State of Logistics European Road Freight Survey 2024.
  • Profiles of the top 10 most promising road freight start-ups in the European market.

Key Questions:

  • How fast is the market forecast to grow out to 2028?
  • How fast are domestic and international road freight markets forecast to grow out to 2028?
  • Who are the top 10 road freight start-ups to watch in 2024?
  • Automotive and e-commerce are important drivers of road freight growth, how will these markets perform over the coming months?
  • What strategies are providers implementing in response to increased tolls?
  • Which decarbonization pathway is the most cost effective?
  • Which sector is the most attractive target for consolidation among road freight forwarders?
  • Who are the Top 20 European Road Freight providers?
  • Which sectors offer the best prospects for volume growth?

Key Findings:

  • The European road freight market is projected to expand by 1.6% in 2024.
  • Domestic and international road freight markets will return to growth in 2024.
  • Almost all European road freight markets are forecasted to grow in 2024.
  • Toll increases across Europe will raise road freight rates by 5% to 10%.
  • 5% of survey respondents state that load optimisation is one of the most effective strategies to mitigate rising operating costs.
  • Consumer goods, high-tech and pharmaceuticals offer the best prospects for volume growth.
  • A vast majority of surveyed road freight companies developed their digital freight booking platform internally.
  • Almost all of the top 20 European road freight providers saw revenues decline in 2023.
  • DB Schenker accounts for 1.8% of the road freight market, and is the clear market leader.

 

TABLE OF CONTENTS  2

TABLE OF FIGURES      7

1. ROAD TRANSPORT - STATE OF LOGISTICS SURVEY 2024 11

1.1 Sample demographics      11

1.2 Margins     13

1.3 Market structure and FTL & LTL split       16

1.4 Sustainability        21

1.5 Tolls          24

1.6 Operating costs and strategies to mitigate rising operating costs          25

1.7 Verticals    27

1.8 Investment focus areas    28

1.9 Challenges 30

1.10 Technology         32

1.11 Digital Freight Platforms 34

2. TOP 10 ROAD FREIGHT START-UPS TO WATCH IN 2024 36

2.1 MANSIO- Truck Transport Solution         36

2.2 CO2OPT - Tire Management        37

2.3 Kodiak Robotics, Inc. - Autonomous trucks: kodiakDriver solution        38

2.4 Viaopt - Digital freight network for private fleets            40

2.5 Nuvocargo Inc. - Digital Freight Forwarder          41

2.6 ISEE, Inc. – Autonomous Vehicles powered by AI            43

2.7 folofly Co., Ltd. - Electric Vehicles 44

2.8 Clockwork Logistics Systems        45

2.9 Torch Logistics, Inc. - Short-haul specialists powered by technology     46

2.10 Cargon Logística e Tecnologia SA - Green Logistics, Fleet management           47

3. EUROPEAN ROAD FREIGHT TRANSPORT MARKET SIZE & GROWTH - 2023, 2024 AND 2028 49

3.1 Introduction         49

3.2 European Road Freight Transport Market Size & Growth           50

3.2.1 European Road Freight Transport Market Size & Growth 2023           50

3.2.2 European Road Freight Transport Market Size & Growth 2024 (F)      51

3.2.3 European Road Freight Transport Market Size & Growth 2028 (F)      53

3.3 Summary of market conditions   55

3.3.1 Demand side factors     55

3.2.1 Supply side factors        57

3.4 Total European Road Freight Transport Market Size & Growth by Country       62

3.4.1 Total European Road Freight Transport Market Size by Country – 2023         62

3.4.2 Total European Road Freight Transport Market Size by Country – 2024 (F)    65

3.4.3 Total European Road Freight Transport Market Size by Country – 2028 (F)    68

3.4.4 Domestic European road freight market size and growth        70

3.4.5 International European road freight market size and growth  74

4. COST COMPARISON OF HYDROGEN, BATTERY ELECTRIC AND DIESEL TRUCKS - WHICH DECARBONIZATION PATHWAY IS THE MOST COST EFFECTIVE? 78

4.1 Overview   78

4.2 Capital costs for diesel, BET and FCET      79

4.3 Fuel Costs 82

4.4  Maintenance Costs          87

4.5 Government Regulation – Road Tolls      90

4.6 TCO comparison for diesel, BET and FCET           92

4.7  Conclusion           97

5. COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE - COMPARISON OF EUROPEAN ROAD FREIGHT PROVIDERS 100

5.1 FINANCIAL COMPARISON - TOP 20          100

5.1.1 Revenue comparison    100

5.1.2 Profit and Margin comparison  101

5.2 comparison of M&A activity in the European Road Freight Market       104

5.2.1 European Road Freight M&A activity across sectors    107

5.2.2 European Road Freight M&A activity across regions   108

5.3 Employees AND FLEET comparison         110

5.3.1 Employees         110

5.3.2 Fleet       112

5.4 Operational Analysis in the European Road        114

5.5 Comparison of Sustainability Initiatives and Performance          117

.5.1 Comparison of Sustainability Initiatives and Performance 2023          117

5.5.2 Comparison of Targets  117

5.5.3 Comparison of Performance     122

 

  

5.5.4 Top 20 European Road Freight Providers - Alternative Fuels Fleet Composition            130

6. European Road Freight Transport Provider Profiles 136

6.1 CEVA/GEFCO        136

6.1.1 Background       136

6.1.2 Finances 137

6.1.3 Operations        137

6.1.4 Acquisitions       139

6.1.5 Technology        139

6.1.6 Sustainability     139

6.1.7 Outlook  141

6.2 Dachser     142

6.2.1 Background       142

6.2.2 Finances 142

6.2.3 Operations        144

6.2.4 M&As     146

6.2.5 Investments       147

6.2.6 Technology        147

6.2.7 Sustainability     148

6.2.8 Strategic Outlook          148

6.3 DB Schenker         150

6.3.1 Background       150

6.3.2 Finances 151

6.3.3 Operations        153

6.3.4 Acquisitions       154

6.3.5 Technology        155

6.3.6 Sustainability     156

6.3.7 Strategic Outlook          157

6.4 DPDHL       161

6.4.1 Background       161

6.4.2 Finances 162

6.4.3 Operations        165

6.4.4 Technology        166

6.4.5 Sustainability     167

6.4.6 Strategic Outlook          169

6.5 DSV A/S     171

6.5.1 Background       171

6.5.2 Finances 172

6.5.3 Operations        175

6.5.4 Investments or Acquisitions     176

6.5.5 Technology        176

6.5.6 Sustainability     178

6.5.7 Strategic Outlook          179

6.6 FEDEX        180

6.6.1 Background       180

6.6.2 Finances 180

6.6.3 Operations        183

6.6.4 Technology        184

6.6.5 Sustainability     185

6.6.6 Outlook  186

6.7 GEODIS      187

6.7.1 Background       187

6.7.2 Acquisitions       187

6.7.3. Finances            188

6.7.4 Operations        189

6.7.5 Technology        191

6.7.6 Sustainability     192

6.7.7 Outlook  193

6.8 Kuehne + Nagel    195

6.8.1 Background       195

6.8.2 Finances 195

6.8.3 Operations        198

6.8.4 Technology        200

6.8.5 Sustainability     201

6.8.6 Outlook  202

6.9 LKW Walter          204

6.9.1 Background       204

6.9.2 Finances 205

6.9.3 Operations        205

6.9.4 Service expansions        207

6.9.5 Technology        207

6.9.6 Sustainability     208

6.9.7 Strategic Outlook          208

6.10 Rhenus Logistics 210

6.10.1 Background     210

6.10.2 Finances           210

6.10.3 Operations      211

6.10.4 Acquisitions     213

6.10.5 Technology      214

6.10.6 Sustainability   215

6.10.7 Outlook            216

 

 

European road freight market to return to growth in 2024 and expand by 1.6%

The European Road Freight Transport 2024 Report from Transport Intelligence – the leading provider of market research to the global logistics industry – shows a picture of muted growth, however the

forecasts on macroeconomic metrics seem to be changing positively.

The European Road Freight Transport 2024 is written by industry researchers, analysts and utilising data from Ti’s GSCi knowledge portal, a data powerhouse with over 1 million pieces of data and analysis.

The market contracted by 2.1% in real terms in 2023 (-5.8% nominally) due largely to Europe’s slowdown throughout the year and challenging macroeconomic conditions. 2023 presented a challenging landscape characterised by adverse global macroeconomic conditions. High inflation and interest rates contributed to a reduction in consumer spending, exerting downward pressure on freight demand throughout the year. Although the eurozone somehow managed to avoid a recession in 2023, the beginning of 2024 remains subdued and a soft landing is expected for most of Europe in 2024. The main source for the 2024 recovery will be strengthening household demand as a result to improving real incomes from higher nominal wage growth and disinflation.

In summary, the outlook for the European road freight market remains subdued. Key downside risks to the forecast for the European road freight market include a renewed increase in energy prices and the potential for tighter lending criteria, rising interest rates and persistent and more volatile inflation as well as weak external demand.

Viki Keckarovska, Research Manager at Ti, says: “The outlook for the European road freight market remains subdued, however the forecasts on macroeconomic metrics seem to be changing positively. These positive macroeconomic forecasts should aid a cautiously optimistic prediction for road freight activity in 2024 and beyond.”

Report highlights

  • In 2023, the European road freight market was worth €424,200m. The market contracted by 2.1% in real terms in 2023 (-5.8% nominally) due largely to Europe’s slowdown throughout the year and challenging macroeconomic conditions.
  • The European road freight market is projected to return to growth in 2024, expanding by 1.6% in real terms (holding prices and exchange rates constant) to reach €431,110m.
  • Ti data shows that the total European road freight market will see a real CAGR of 2.1% from 2023 to 2028.
  • Ti’s State of Logistics Road Freight Survey 2024 reveals that 78.7% of road freight companies are currently experiencing increased pressure on margins as costs soar and demand weakens. The top three strategies to sustain profit margins include technology investments, improved vehicle utilisation-reduction of empty miles, and offering new/more value-added services.
  • Where BETs have already reached TCO parity with internal combustion engine diesel trucks across much of Europe, there is no reasonable time period in which FCETs will achieve such parity due to the capital cost and the cost of the hydrogen fuel. The cost of hydrogen fuel impacts the TCO across all regions as the cost per kg combined with fuel efficiency will considerably add to the capital costs. BETs cost parity with internal combustion engine diesel trucks varies regionally, with different political policies on low emissions transport affecting TCO.
  • DB Schenker has continued to maintain its place as the leader in the European road freight market, with revenues of €7.8bn in 2023.

The full report also analyses the competitive landscape in the European road freight market and offers in-depth market projections and trade forecasts: an essential tool for business leaders making critical decisions. It also provides an in-depth analysis of the total cost of ownership (TCO) and a comparison of real-world capital costs, fuel costs, maintenance costs and taxation for battery electric trucks (BETs), fuel cell electric trucks (FCETs) and diesel trucks. The report also contains profiles of the top 10 most promising road freight start-ups in the European market.

Viki Keckarovska is a Senior Research Analyst with vast experience in the design, implementation and analysis of electronic and person-to-person surveys. Having worked across a number of sectors, including retail, luxury goods and FMCG, Viki is experienced in gaining valuable insights across brand perception, voice of customer and strategic re-positioning intelligence campaigns for B-to-B and B-to-C clients. As a member of the Market Research Society, Viki brings best practice in research, insight and analytics across Ti.

Shruti Sasidharan is a seasoned market research professional offering extensive experience in conducting in-depth market analysis and interpreting data across a multitude of sectors on a global level.

This report is perfect for

This report is specifically written to provide comprehensive and easily accessible strategic information to those involved or with an interest in this sector as well as:

  • Global manufacturers
  • Banks and financial institutions
  • Supply chain managers and directors
  • Logistics procurement managers
  • Marketing managers
  • Knowledge managers
  • Investors
  • All C-level executives

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